Last fall, like many across the social sector, we could sense change coming. Conversations with our nonprofit and grantmaking partners felt heavier, and questions about sustainability, staffing, and shifting priorities were surfacing with urgency.
Given the uncertainty, we revisited a tool we’ve used before: scenario planning. Over the years, we’ve seen scenario planning help organizations think through possible futures during other unpredictable times, so we decided to adapt it for what we were seeing and hearing. Not as a resolution to the very real and threatening pressures nonprofits were facing, but to stand alongside them with something practical, supportive, and grounded in our expertise.
Today, we have partnered with more than 100 nonprofit organizations working across a wide range of social issues to develop scenario plans through this program.
In this piece, we’re sharing back what we learned from nonprofit participants that completed our scenario planning program. As you read, we invite you to consider what these reflections mean for your own work. Our hope is that you use these insights to prompt internal dialogue and strengthen the ways you support and collaborate with nonprofits.
How Nonprofits Are Experiencing Uncertainty
Much of what nonprofit participants shared in our cohorts aligns with what many of us have heard across the sector. Common themes included loss of funding from government and private funders, political attacks driving away funders, threats to safety and security, and more. Survey feedback affirmed the appreciation participants felt for being in community with peers working on other issues outside their organization.
“The biggest thing was being able to compare with other organizations and triangulate our situation. Being able to see what others have done to prepare and share ideas.” – Scenario Planning Cohort Participant
How Nonprofits Are Preparing to Respond to Uncertainty
Cohort members responded to potential changes in the environment in different ways. Worst case scenarios often envisioned significant funding cuts leading the organization to retain only its core mission functions and a lean staff. Moderate case scenarios typically included funding cuts that led to scaled back programming and modest layoffs. Best case scenarios typically envisioned maintaining current funding and staffing, or in some cases, expanding programs and services.
“I have concrete tools that I can leverage to engage our leadership team in scenario planning process and conversations.” – Scenario Planning Cohort Participant
Participants are already starting to think about how they will embed their scenario plans into their daily work. Some are sharing their plans with stakeholders, and using their plan for deeper discussion with grantmakers.
Nonprofits’ Recommendations for How Grantmakers Can Continue to Help
Here are common themes we heard across cohorts and in coaching sessions with participants regarding ways grantmakers can support nonprofits:
- Organizations urgently need financial support and flexibility in funding so organizations can invest in their mission critical work. As the landscape continues to shift, funding losses are creating critical gaps that threaten program safety and capacity. Grantmakers can help by holding the line on their investments or considering additional support for grantees doing work that grantmakers consider to be “mission critical.”
- Communicate clearly and transparently. Clear communication from grantmakers about sustained support, potential new resources, and any changes under consideration helps them plan and adapt. Grantees also want to understand how funders are responding to current threats. Sharing this openly can help ease uncertainty and strengthen trust. Many nonprofit leaders expressed that they feel they’re facing these challenges alone. Ask: How are you responding to this moment? How are you fighting back? What posture are you taking, and how can we best support you? These challenges aren’t short-term. Consistent, empathetic communication that goes beyond your usual cadence can make a meaningful difference.
- Support social sector infrastructure organizations. State associations for nonprofits are doing important advocacy work for the sector and providing technical assistance to nonprofits. Supporting their efforts helps strengthen the sector overall.
- Continue to advance diversity, equity, and Inclusion commitments. Many organizations leading the way in advancing equitable outcomes in their communities are facing increasing threats to their legitimacy and work. Private funders can play an important role in helping them be able to continue their work.
- Offer continued peer connection points. We heard many nonprofits share a desire to connect with peers so they can problem solve together, learn from one another, or explore opportunities for partnership or collaboration. Continued opportunities for peer exchange can be highly valuable, particularly if structured to ensure participants get the most from the experience. These connections allow for more collective work, sharing challenges, and developing solutions together.
As we reflect on the past year and the current state of the sector, we know uncertainty is not going away. Let the insights and courage of these 100+ organizations be a guide to deeper listening, learning, community-centered collaboration, and bold dreaming toward the world we want to create together. And may we carry these lessons forward with intention as we navigate whatever comes next.